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Decision Science

1. Based on the following data develop the forecasting model (adopt Exponential Smoothing Technique) by considering the following alpha levels. ? = 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8.

Write your conclusion after calculations of Errors (MAD and MSE only).

Forecast FTAs (foreign tourist arrival) for the year 2018.

Data: The following data shows the Foreign Tourist Arrival in the India from 1991 to 2017 Year FTAs in India (in Million)

Year FTAs in India (in Million)
1991 1.68
2001 2.54
2002 2.38
2003 2.73
2004 3.46
2005 3.92
2006 4.45
2007 5.08
2008 5.28
2009 5.17
2010 5.78
2011 6.31
2012 6.58
2013 6.97
2014 7.68
2015 8.03
2016 8.8
2017 10.04


Data Source: Data.gov.in

Note: You are advised to calculate manually, do not use any software. (10 Marks)

2. Calculate the Correlations for the following pairs of variables and write your Conclusion.
• In Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & Total MSMEs
• In Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & Active Companies
• In Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & 2017-18 GSDP -
CURRENT PRICES (` in Crore)
• Total MSMEs & Active Companies

Note: Use MS EXCEL, SPSS, SAS etc. for the calculations.
State Total MSMEs Active Companies In Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) 2017-18 GSDP - CURRENT PRICES (` in Crore)
ANDAMAN &
NICOBAR ISLANDS 6,061 319 81,267 7,871
ANDHRA PRADESH 6,41,929 1,16,210 15,91,890 15,46,313
ARUNACHAL
PRADESH 60,932 237 1,36,010 22,432
ASSAM 20,189 6,346 4,95,699 2,88,691
BIHAR 9,02,520 20,867 11,11,954 4,84,740
CHANDIGARH 11,209 7,956 6,33,966 38,760
CHHATTISGARH 69,758 7,109 12,67,668 4,84,740
DELHI 1,63,821 2,16,531 63,30,065 6,86,824
GOA 8,620 4,125 2,69,689 70,494
GUJARAT 8,07,378 62,619 39,16,075 13,28,068
HARYANA 1,85,486 30,868 36,26,318 6,49,592
HIMACHAL
PRADESH 14,674 3,344 3,95,504 1,38,351
JAMMU & KASHMIR 9,399 2,745 1,55,187 1,37,427
JHARKHAND 1,57,813 9,554 21,95,521 2,76,243
KARNATAKA 3,32,872 68,333 32,47,660 13,57,579
KERALA 1,25,934 31,244 6,54,423 7,01,577
MADHYA PRADESH 9,34,293 22,315 27,44,332 7,24,729
MAHARASHTRA 16,92,859 2,31,912 90,87,380 24,11,600
MANIPUR 34,423 434 20,100 23,835
MEGHALAYA 2,208 560 1,07,915 30,790
MIZORAM 3,238 66 41,380 18,737
NAGALAND 1,543 235 1,08,020 24,492
ODISHA 1,19,291 15,204 8,55,096 4,34,769
PUDUCHERRY 10,539 1,282 3,39,967 32,962
PUNJAB 2,03,394 16,909 24,88,299 4,78,636
RAJASTHAN 5,72,546 37,022 26,04,298 8,35,170
SIKKIM 875 2 61,163 23,495
TAMIL NADU 10,32,490 76,675 16,50,771 14,61,841
TRIPURA 5,936 317 87,378 44,219
UTTAR PRADESH 8,87,413 70,863 40,61,933 14,60,443
UTTARAKHAND 40,443 4,792 12,50,575 2,22,836
WEST BENGAL 2,31,190 1,35,844 23,81,045 9,99,585
Data Source https://data.gov.in/ https://data.gov.in/ https://censusindia.gov.in/ https://data.gov.in/

(10 Marks)

3. a. Summarized the following data by calculating the mean and standard deviation. (5 Marks)

Note: You are advisable to use EXCEL. You are supposed to Copy the numbers (final calculations) from EXCEL and paste them into your word document.

State District Number Of Indigenous (Desi) Total Cattle Total
Buffalo
UTTARAKHAND Uttarkashi 82991 25945
UTTARAKHAND Chamoli 132165 37922
UTTARAKHAND Rudraprayag 71277 31115
UTTARAKHAND Tehri Garhwal 80833 79394
UTTARAKHAND Dehradun 87753 52185
UTTARAKHAND Garhwal 235412 30076
UTTARAKHAND Pithoragarh 108417 37056
UTTARAKHAND Bageshwar 70863 31432
UTTARAKHAND Almora 132038 77444
UTTARAKHAND Champawat 45506 18599
UTTARAKHAND Nainital 101009 77759
UTTARAKHAND Udham Singh Nagar 63311 152911
UTTARAKHAND Hardwar 63728 214480

Data Source: Ministry of agriculture and farmers’ welfare.

3. b. Write about the general pattern (here, time series component) across